Oxford Mail Scales Of Justice January 2020, Articles OTHER

), voted Democrat again in 2020? Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Lets find a coin, and flip it. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Contributors wanted Voter Demographics (9). It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. It almost became religious.". If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. 4. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Watch Hampton City. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. Subscribe to breaking updates "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Trump won 18 of the 19. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Free and open-source. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. This county voted with the popular vote each time. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. 2023 BBC. 2. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. But it's also not unprecedented. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. hide caption. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Until this year. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Election night is going to be information overload. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). They simply vote on merit. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Outstanding. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. our Gitlab account where you can The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Enter Donald Trump. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. But it's still indicative of widespread support. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Click here, for more. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Jeff. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. These are the bellwether counties. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Will That Last?]. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. First, what are bellwether counties? Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. 11. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Outstanding. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Nobody forgot about politics.". Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. i.e. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. University of Denver, 2. It is easy to gloss over this. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Sumter County, . Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Watauga has gone for. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. TIP: Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. All rights reserved. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. . Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. (Sorry, not sorry.) With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%.